Big Screen, Big Problem?

If you are thinking of buying a big screen TV, you might think again on the basis of new work performed by a team of researchers at Scripps Institute of Oceanography at U.C. San Diego. Their study tried to estimate how much nitrogen trifluoride — a powerful greenhouse gas that is used in the manufacture of flat screen TVs — is in the atmosphere. The researchers’ findings indicate that it is at least four times more prevalent than previously estimated, according to a press release issued by the Institution.
Concerns were raised about nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) earlier this year in an article that was published in 'New Scientist' magazine. The article referred to work done by Professor Michael Prather from the University of California at Irvine. NF3 is considered to be 17,000 times more potent as a global warming agent than carbon dioxide on a molecule-for-molecule basis. It also survives in the atmosphere about five times longer than CO2. Don't panic if you ordered that 46-inch screen today, though. It is estimated that NF3 emissions currently contribute only about 0.04 percent of the total global warming effect contributed by current human-produced carbon dioxide emissions.
Of more concern is an increase in the production of NF3 to serve the consumer electronics market, including LCD TVs. Ironically news of the Scripps study was released on the same day as the announcement of a predicted increase in the market for NF3. A press release issued by Global Industry Analysts, Inc., a market research firm, says that the world nitrogen trifluoride market "is projected to reach 19.5 thousand metric tons by the year 2012." One of the main factors cited for this increase is a growing demand for LCD applications.
"Semiconductors end-use market represents the largest and the most mature application area for nitrogen trifluoride, accounting for over 45% share estimated in 2008," the release says. "Demand for nitrogen trifluoride from the LCDs end-use market, is forecast to display robust growth at a projected CAGR of 13.8% over the period 2011-2015 and surpass semiconductor industry demand by 2012."
Recent statements coming out of Panasonic, the world's largest consumer-electronics maker, are indicative of the strength of the market for flat-screen TVs. Sales of these products won't be hurt by the slowing economy because consumers tend to give them priority over other purchases, a spokesman for the company is quoted as saying on Bloomberg.com. According to that same site, sales of flat-screen TVs have helped Panasonic increase profits 86% in the first quarter of the year and the company is planning to open new flat-screen factories in the next two years in a bid to increase U.S. sales. However, sales growth of products such as flat-screen televisions is expected to be slower this year than last, according to Steve Baker, an industry analyst for NPD Group. In another article on Bloomberg.com, Baker is cited as saying that sales will rise by about three percent, compared with a rise of around 4.5 percent a year ago.
Previously it was thought that the amount of NF3 in the atmosphere in 2006 was less than 1,200 metric tons. The Scripps researchers estimate that the actual amount present two years ago was closer to 4,200 metric tons. The research also indicates that the amount of NF3 in the atmosphere this year is about 5,400, which is about 28.6% percent higher than the amount estimated for 2006. According to the news release, the quantity of NF3 in the atmosphere is increasing at about 11 percent per year.
The Scripps team analyzed air samples gathered over the past 30 years, working in association with the NASA-funded Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network of ground-based atmosphere stations. The researchers found that concentrations of the gas rose from about 0.02 parts per trillion in 1978 to 0.454 parts per trillion in 2008. The samples also showed significantly higher concentrations of NF3 in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, which the researchers said is consistent with its use predominantly in Northern Hemisphere countries. The current observed rate of increase of NF3 in the atmosphere corresponds to emissions of about 16 percent of the amount of the gas produced globally.
NF3 is not currently covered under the Kyoto Protocol because information has been lacking on its potential impact on global warming. Scientists are now recommending that it be added to the list of greenhouse gases regulated by Kyoto.The complete press release from the Scripps Institution can be found here.The complete press release from Global Industry Analysts, Inc. is here.